DavidTang（鄧永鏘）
MaoTse-Tungwasonceaskedwhathethoughtwouldhavehappenedif,insteadofJ.F.Kennedy,Khrushchevhadbeenassassinated.Maoreplied:"Idon'tsupposeMrOnassiswouldhavemarriedMrsKhrushchev."
Anotherhypotheticalquestiononworldhistorymight,however,havebroughtalessflippantanswerfromMao:"Whatwouldhavehappenedifhiseffort,togetherwithChouEn-Lai,toseePresidentRooseveltinl945hadmaterialized?"Almostcertainly,theintensemistrustandhatredbetweenChinaandAmericawouldnothavetaken27yearstothaw,whichonlycamewiththe"ping-pong"diplomacyofNixon.Inbetween,ChinamighthaveescapedMao'sGreatLeapForwardandtheCulturalRevolutionandarguably,eventheKoreanWarandVietnamWarcouldhavebeenprevented!Millionsofliveswouldhavebeensaved.Whatthehellhappened?
Itallcentredroundavaingloriousmanborninaminer'scabininOklahomabutwhomademillionsintheoilbusinessandbecameHoover'sSecretaryofWar.HisnamewasPatrickJ.HurleyandhewastheAmericanAmbassadorinChinainl945.Tallandhandsomeandalwaysdressedimmaculately,HurleyhadadirectlinetoPresidentRoosevelt.Ageneraltoboot,hewasconsumedinhisvanity.
BeforehisarrivalinChina,Hurleyknewnothingofthecountrynorthepeople,stilllesstheCommunistswho,ashewastoldbyMolotov,werenot"realcommunists".ButhewasconsciousofAmerica'sforeignpolicythatdemandedastableandunitedChinaandsetaboutthetaskofsecuringanagreementbetweenChiangKai-ShekandMaoforacoalitiongovernment.
InacoldmorningonNovember10,1944,HurleymanagedtoagreewithMaoaproposedplantobepresentedtoChiangforacoalition.MaowentalongwithitbecauseitpivotallystipulatedjointCommunistandNationalistcontroloverChina'sarmedforces.OnNovemberl6,HurleywenttoChiang,buttheGeneralissimorejectedtheproposa1becauseheknewthatanymilitaryconcessiontotheCommunistswouldbefartoodangerous.Thisquestionofthemilitarywasadeal-breakerforbothMaoandChiang,soHurleywasstuckwithastalemate.
Meanwhile,theAmericanTheaterCommand,withoutreferencetoHurley,hadmadeoverturestoMaoaboutthepossibilityofCommunists'helpinalandingbyAmericanforces,evenspecifyingabeachheadatShantungwithadivisionof28,000men!Encouragedandflatteredbythis,MaoandChoubelievedthataface-to-facemeetinginWashingtonwouldextendthebestchanceofaproperpresentationontheirCommunistcauseandforRoosevelttoforceChiangintoacoalition,whichHurleywasunabletodeliver.TheCommunistswouldthenhaveaccesstoAmericanarmsforwhichMaowasdesperate.AsecretmessagewasthereforesentdirectlytoGeneralWedemeyer,theMilitaryCommander,withanofferfromMaototraveltoAmerica,withorwithoutChou,toseethePresident.
Thenoneofthoseunfortunatequirksofhistoryhappened.WedemeyerwasinBurmawhenthemessagearrivedinChungking,anditshiddencontentfellintothehandsofHurley,preciselywhatMaoandChoudidnotwant.HurleywasincensedtodiscoverthatMaowastryingtomeanderroundhimandmoreincensedthathisownmilitarywasridingroughshodoverhim.NeitherwashebestpleasedtobetoldbyhissubordinateembassystaffsimultaneouslythatitwasMaoandtheCommunistswhomatteredmorethanhispreferredChinesefriend,Chiang.Stewedinparanoia,HurleywasnotabouttosupportMao'sinitiativeseparatefromhisownmediation.Hemadesurethattherequestwasonlymentioned,almostenpassant,toRooseveltinhisdespatchthatmainlycomplainedofwhathecouchedasunauthorizedanddisloyalactionbythemilitaryandhisembassy.Hurleyalsoarguedthathemustnotbedeflectedfromhisownslavingeffortsforcoalition.
AsforRoosevelt,hewasonlyafewmonthsawayfromdeath,havingbeeninofficeforl3years.ConsumedbytheWorldWar,thefrailPresidentwasstillbombardedbyaplethoraofproblems:warcrimes,post-warpoliciesonGermanyandJapan,theSovietUnion,Poland,Yugoslavia,Greece,aswellastheimminentYaltaConference.RooseveltcouldwellhavedonewithouttheCommunistsinChina,evenifAmericahadhelpedanotherCommunist,Tito.SoRooseveltignoredMaoandmerelyaskedStalinatYalta,naively,tosidewithChiang,sothatMaowouldbeforcedtofallin.
Maowasbitterlydisappointedwhenheheardnothingformonths.InJunel945,attheSeventhPartyCongress,Maoshowedhisresentmentbywarningthatif"agroupofpeopleintheU.S.Government"weretocontinuewithapolicybasedonthesanctityofChiang,thenAmericawouldbepulledinto"thedeepstinkingcesspoolofChinesereaction"thatwouldplace"acrushingburdenonthegovernmentandpeopleoftheUnitedStates,andplungethemintoendlesswoesandtroubles".
26yearslapsedbeforeanothersecretinitiativewasattempted:thistimeinreversefromAmerica,withKissingersneakingintoPekinginl971toprepareforNixon'soleaginousvisit.Duringtheinterveningyears,Sino-USrelationswerefrozenintopartoftheColdWar;theGangofFourranriotwithinthedarkMiddleKingdom,andunimaginablebloodshedandhumansacrificespaidransomtoanignominiousstainonthe20thcentury.Howthewholeworldmighthavebeendifferentifonlyoneman,Hurley,hadnotbeenseizedbyhisOklahomanmegalomania.
（Theusualprizeof$2,000willbeofferedtothefirstcorrectanswertowhatChouEn-LaiwassupposedtohaverepliedwhenaskedduringhisofficialvisittoParis:"WhatdoyouthinkoftheFrenchRevolution?"[email protected]）
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作者為上海灘創辦人，文章隔星期一刊出