麥偉林（WilliamMcGurn）
Ofalltheironiesofpost--TiananmenSquareChina,surelyatthetophastobethediscomfitureoccasionedinBeijingbythesightofChinesepeoplebearingolivebranches.DissidentstheCommunistPartyleadersclapbehindbars;religiousmovementstheybrutallysquelch;yettheextendedolivebranchleavesthembefuddled.
That'sjustwhatthepeopleofHongKongofferedearlierthismonthduringamarchforuniversalsuffragethatattractedasmanyas530,000people,ledbytheRomanCatholicbishopandtheleadersofthedemocracymovement.ThoughunfortunatelyovershadowedbythereturnofsovereigntytoIraq,thedemonstrationillustratesthecornerintowhichChinahaspainteditselfsince1997:ThemoreitresistsHongKongpublicsentimentfavoringnormalpoliticsandthedirectelectionoftheirchiefexecutive,themorepoliticizedChina'scolonialstepchildbecomes.
ThisisnottheHongKongwewerepromisedbackinthecontentious1990s,whenBeijingwasusingdescriptionslike"struttingprostitute"toattackthen-Gov.ChrisPattenfortryingtoinjectsomerealrepresentationintothesystembeforethe1997handover.BackthentheestablishmentargumentwasthatHongKonghadprosperedwithoutdemocracyformorethanacentury,sowhyintroducepolitics?TungCheeHwa,theshippingmagnatetappedbyChinatoserveasitsfirstpost-Britishchiefexecutive,embodiedtheviewthatthebusinessofHongKongwasbusiness.
ButMr.Tunghasinfactdeliveredneitherprosperitynorstability.Gov.Pattenwascriticizedbymany(includingyourstruly)fordramaticallyboostingwelfarespending.Butsaythisforhim:Hiswelfarewasatleastdirectedtothelesswell-off.Mr.Tungprefershiswelfaretobecorporate:cyberports,stock-marketintervention,overhypedpublic-worksprojects,andthesortofmeddlingonceanathemainthisfree-marketenclave.Andat7%,unemploymentismorethandoublewhatitwasunderMr.Patten.
ButtheworstthingMr.TunghasdoneistohelppoliticizealmostallaspectsofHongKonglife.
Asthisyear'speacefulmarchdemonstrated,HongKongpeoplearehopelesslydecent,well--behavedandmiddle-class.ButthemoreBeijinganditslocalmandarinatebetraythepromisegiventothemin1984--"HongKongpeoplerulingHongKong"--themoretheycourtwhattheymostfear:abaseforanti-Chinaactivities.
Thatisnotyetapparent.ButifBeijingcontinuestolabelas"unpatriotic"or"traitors"(ashashappenedtoBishopJosephZenandprominentdemocratssuchasEmilyLauandMartinLee)thosewhowantonlyforChinatoliveuptoitspromisesofself--ruleforHongKong,thelogicalnextstepistoconcludethattheonlyhopeliesinregimechange.Inacitywherehalfamillionpeopleturnoutin100--degreeheattoshowtheiraspirations,thedangerofsuppressingliberalsistocreateradicals.
It'snotsurprisingthatthismessagehasnotregisteredinBeijing.DuringavisittoHongKongjustlastmonth,theleadingcomplaintIheardwasnotaboutBeijingpersebutaboutthewildlydistortedreportsandadvicethatitisgettingfromitsminionsinHongKong.InmyyearsinHongKongIhadasimilarexperiencelisteningtoallthe"experts"whowereconstantlyinsistingthatthekindofmarchwesawlastmonthwasimpossible:HongKongpeoplejustdidn'tcarethatmuch.
Whentheyturnedoutin1989,theargumentwent,thiswasjustanemotionalresponsetoTiananmen;onceChinatookoverfromindulgentBritain,HongKongpeoplewouldbuckledown.Thenlastyear,whennearlyhalfamillionpeopleforcedMr.Tungintoahumiliatingbackdownonaridiculoussecuritylaw,thattoowasdeemedaone--offthing--reflectingthepooreconomyasmuchasanythingelse.
Theturnoutthisyearoughttoconfirmtheobvious:HongKongpeoplewanttochoosetheirchiefexecutive.TheproblemtheyhaveisthatsinceTiananmenandtheFalunGongspiritualmovementtherulersinChinaarescared.AndwhenChina'sscared,Chinasquashes.
ButtheolivebranchgivesthemanoutiftheyarewiseenoughtotakeitandgiveHongKongsomecleardate,asfaroutasitmaybe,ofwhentheywillfreelyelecttheirleader.Beijing,ofcourse,worriesthatbyaccedingtoHongKong'saspirationsitwillinspiresimilaraspirationsonthemainland.Butthat'salong-termproposition.ThemoreimmediateandpracticalworryBeijingshouldhaveisthatgrowingresentmentwillresultintheTunggovernment'sinabilitytogovern.
Backin1991,evenbeforetheadventofChrisPatten,Iwroteabookcalled"PerfidiousAlbion"abouttheBritishselloutofHongKong.MyfearwasneverthatthePLAtankswouldmarchinalaTiananmen.ItwasthatthefreedomsthatmadeHongKonguniquewouldbeerodedtothepointwhereHongKongwouldbecometheworstthingyoucouldsayaboutit:justanotherChinesecity.Thatwilltaketime--Romewasn'tdestroyedinaday,afriendlikestosay--butthepoliticsisalreadystartingtodoitsdamage.
NodoubtthePartyleadersinBeijingfearafreelyelectedChineseleaderinHongKongwithallthemoralcredibilitythatimplies.Buttheycoulddomuchworse.Andlookingathowtheirhandpickedleader,TungCheeHwa,hasturnedaprosperouscityintoanincreasinglypoliticizedislandofdiscontent,surelytheyalreadyhave.
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作者為美國《華爾街日報》總主筆
(ReprintedfromTheAsianWallStreetJournal?2004DowJones&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.)