米爾頓．佛利民（MiltonFriedman）
Economicsisasubjectwhich,likemanyothersciences,doesnotemitofcontrolledexperiments,butitdoesemitofnaturalexperiments,andwerelyagreatdealuponthosenaturalexperiments.ThefalloftheBerlinWall15yearsagobroughttoanendoneofthemostdramaticnaturalexperimentseverconducted,thenaturalexperimentbetweenacollectivistsocietyandafreemarketsociety,betweentwowaysoforganizingeconomicactivity,fromthetopdownorfromthebottomup.Thatexperimentendedconclusivelyanddecisively.Butitleftuswitharealproblem:Wheredowegofromhere?
Italsoproducedanenormousexpansioninfreedomaroundtheworld,everywhere.Morepeoplehavebeensetfreefromcentralcontrolinthepast15yearsthaninalmostanyotherperiodinhumanhistory.Butthatalso,asIsay,launchedanewnaturalexperimentonthealternativeroutesfromcentralplanningtocapitalism.Howdowegofromacentrallyplannedsocietytoafreemarketsociety?
WhenIwasfirstaskedthatquestionabout15yearsago,Ihadaverysimple,straightforwardanswer?threewords:Privatize,privatize,privatize.
Inthelightofthepastyears,weknowthatthat’smuchtoosimpleananswer.Ithastobeaccompaniedatleastbytwomorethings:Providingalegalframeworkforprivatepropertyandprovidingareasonablystablemonetarypolicy.
Buttherearemanymorethingsinvolved,andtheprocessoftransitionisnotafastone,butaveryslowone.Thereisatendencyforthenewlychangingcountriestolookatthesuccessesastheirmodels,tolookattheUnitedStates,tolookatBritain,tolookatotheradvancedcountries.ButIbelievethisisaseriousmistake.
CurrentlyintheUnitedStates,governmentspendsabout40percentofournationalincome.InBritainitishigherthanthat.WhentheUnitedStateswasfirststartedbackinthe18thcentury,andforthenextcenturyandahalf,governmentspendingneverexceededmorethanabout10percentofnationalincome.IfinthoseearlydaystheUnitedStatesGovernmenthadbeenspending40percentofthenationalincome,IcanassureyoutheUnitedStateswouldneverhavedeveloped.
ThepropermodelforthecountriesthatarenowtryingtomaketheirwayisnottheUnitedStatesoftoday,nottheBritainoftoday;itistheUnitedStatesof200yearsago,theBritainof200yearsago,atimewhengovernmentplayedamuch,muchsmallerroleandindividualinitiativeplayedamuchlargerrole.
Asacitizen,Iamdelightedbythegrowthoffreedomthatwehaveseeninthepastdecadeandahalf.Asascientist,Iamfascinatedbythenewevidencewewillgetfromthemanyexperimentsthataregoingonaround.
Historyshowsthatthereisaverylonglagbetweenchangesintheclimateofopinionontheonehandandchangesinpoliticalpracticeontheother.AdamSmithpublished“WealthofNations”in1776,thesameyearoftheDeclarationofIndependence.Youdidnotgettheopeningupoftrade,theendoftheCornLaw,untilabout70yearslater.Andindeed,ittookabout100yearsbeforethelessonofAdamSmithbecameembeddedintheBritishmovementtowardfreetradeandfreeenterprise.
KarlMarxwrotehisbookinthemiddleofthe19thcentury,andtheFabianSocietywasfoundedinabout1870orsoon.AnditdidnottakeuntilabouttheFirstWorldWarbeforethesocialistlesson.Ittookallofthattimebeforeitcouldbecomeeffective.
IntheUnitedStates,theclimateofopinionhadbecomeoverwhelminglysocialistbytheendofthethirties;certainlybytheendofWorldWarII,andthatcumulativeopinionhadnotsofarhadanyeffect,ormucheffect,onthestructureoftheeconomy.In1946,youcouldhavesaidthattheclimateofopinionintheUnitedStateswassocialist,butactualpracticewasfreemarket.Governmentspendingwasmuchsmallerthanitisnow,andgovernmentintrusionintoourliveswasmuchless.
Butthenthelageffectofthatriseinopiniontowardsocialismstartedtobecomeeffective.AndwehadgallopingsocialismintheUnitedStates,from1946toabout1980,andcreepingsocialismfortheperiodthereafter.Andthatwastheeffectoftheopinionchangesthathadoccurredintheprior30or40years.
Well,thesamesituationisarisingtoday.IfyoulookattheclimateofopinionintheUnitedStates,therehasbeenavastchangebetween1945orso,whenitwasoverwhelminglysocialist,andtoday,wheneverybody,everybody,professors-to-be,believeinfreemarketsandprivateliberty,privateindividualfreedomandlimitedgovernment.Butthat’sthetalk,andthelagisshowingupinpractice.
AsIsaid,in1946youcouldsayopinionwassocialist,practicewasprivatemarket.Todayyoucouldsayopinionisprivateenterprise,practiceissocialist.Governmentspendingiscloseto40percentofnationalincome.Wehaveabookofrulesandregulations.TheFederalRegisterhassome80,000pagesinit.Itisaveryintrusivegovernment.Butthatlag,thatopinionchange,isstartingtowork.
Andtheproblemthatweallhavehasbecomeadifferentone.Ourmajorproblemisnolongertopersuadepeoplethatfreemarketsandlimitedgovernmentandprivatepropertyareessentialprerequisitesforprosperityandfreedom.Ourproblemisreallytopersuadepeopletopracticewhattheypreach.Andthat’samuchmoredifficulttask.
作者為一九七六年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、美國胡佛研究所資深研究員